The Seedling Audit: Mazingira Day, One Year On

A year after Mazingira Day 2025, do we know how many of the trees planted are still alive? Here’s how to find out, and what to ask our leaders.

Quick take

• On Mazingira Day 2025, schools were asked to plant about 2,000 fruit trees each, aiming for over 71 million seedlings nationwide.
• A year on, the number that matters isn’t seedlings planted. It’s seedlings alive.
• You can audit a tree in ten minutes, and your data helps hold everyone accountable.

Do you recall the tree that was planted during the previous Mazingira Day? Are you aware of its current status? Furthermore, if I were to inquire about the survival rate of the trees planted on October 10, 2025, could anyone provide a definitive answer?

This inquiry is at the forefront of my mind as we approach this year’s Mazingira Day. In the previous year, educational institutions across Kenya participated in a national initiative aimed at tree cultivation, with the ambitious goal of planting approximately 71 million fruit tree seedlings across roughly 35,570 primary schools, equating to about 2,000 seedlings per school. This initiative represented a significant endeavor and posed a substantial challenge for schools that often operate under constraints of limited water resources, staffing, and available time. Consequently, it is pertinent to discuss the outcomes and implications of this initiative beyond the initial celebratory events.Do you remember the tree you planted last Mazingira Day? Do you know if it’s still alive? And if I asked how many of the trees planted on October 10, 2025 survived their first year, could anyone give me a straight answer?

That’s the question I’m carrying into this Mazingira Day. Last year, schools across Kenya were asked to take part in a national tree-growing exercise, with a target of about 71 million fruit tree seedlings across some 35,570 primary schools, roughly 2,000 per school. It was a bold plan. It was also a big ask of schools with limited water, staff and time. So let’s talk about what comes after the photo.

What is a seedling audit?

To assess the health and success of a tree planting effort, it’s important to conduct a straightforward evaluation of the site. This involves counting the number of trees that were planted, determining how many of those trees are still alive, and evaluating their overall condition. This process is not intended to be a formal research project; rather, it should become a regular practice to ensure ongoing care and management of the planted trees.

Why now?

A tree planted last October has now completed a full year of growth, successfully enduring a dry season, which serves as an important milestone for its survival. Research on tropical reforestation shows that approximately 18% of saplings typically die within their first year, and around 44% do not survive beyond five years. In Kenya’s drier regions, survival rates can drop below 30% if trees are not properly cared for. However, a monthly planting program led by local chiefs achieved a notable success rate, with 60% survival for 6.4 million seedlings in its inaugural year. This success is largely attributed to consistent follow-up efforts to ensure the saplings’ health and well-being. These statistics were also examined in last year’s Mazingira Day post.

Who should audit?

Pupils and teachers, parents, youth groups, church and estate committees, county foresters, journalists. If you planted it, you’re the best person to check on it.

Where do we start?

At the tree you planted, or the school, estate or church compound that took part last year.

How do you do it? (Ten minutes)

1. Count how many trees were planted and how many are alive.
2. Note the species and whether it’s a fruit or indigenous tree.
3. Check for the basics: watering, mulch, a guard against livestock, weeding.
4. Take a photo with today’s date.
5. Share the result with your school, ward or county forestry office, and record it on the JazaMiti app if you can.

What should we ask leaders?

• Publish survival rates, not just seedlings planted, and publish them by county.
• Get independent verification of the numbers.
• Fund maintenance (water, guards, replacement seedlings) before the next round of planting, not after.
• Protect the mature trees and wetlands we already have.

At the school tree project I’ve been part of, survival came from ownership: each tree had a name attached to it, and someone was responsible for watering it. That’s the model I’d love to see scaled: fewer photo ops, more follow-ups.

To every teacher, pupil and parent who has watered a tree when nobody was watching: thank you. This is your holiday too.