After the Photo: Is Your Mazingira Day Tree Still Alive?

Do you remember the tree you planted last Mazingira Day? Do you know if it’s still alive? And if I asked how many of the trees planted on 10 October 2025 survived their first year, could anyone give me a straight answer?

That’s the question I’m carrying into this Mazingira Day, which falls on Saturday, 10 October.

Last year, schools across Kenya were asked to take part in a national tree-growing drive. The Ministry of Education directed every one of the country’s 35,570 public and private primary schools to plant at least 2,000 fruit trees, adding up to a target of about 71 million fruit tree seedlings. Schools were even told to open their gates on the public holiday so learners, parents and alumni could come and plant. The government’s message was clear: once the trees are in the ground, teachers, learners and alumni should take personal responsibility for nurturing them.

It was a bold plan. Fruit trees in schools mean shade, food and nutrition for children, and maybe some income down the line. But it was also a big ask of schools that already have limited water, limited staff, and limited time.

So let’s talk about what comes after the photo.

What is a seedling audit?

It’s a simple check on a tree or a planting site. How many were planted? How many are alive? And what condition are they in?

That’s it. It’s not a research project. It’s a habit.

And it’s the habit we keep skipping. We celebrate the planting. We post the pictures. We count the seedlings. But a seedling in the ground is a promise, not a tree. Kenya’s own Forestry Principal Secretary has said the national campaign tracks progress through the JazaMiti platform, with the focus on nurturing trees to maturity rather than just counting seedlings. WWF-Kenya put it even more simply: survival is the true measure of success.

So why don’t we measure it?

Why now?

Because a tree planted last October has now lived through a full year, including at least one dry season. That’s its first real test.

What does the research say about that first year? A large study of 176 forest restoration sites in tropical and subtropical Asia found that, on average, 18% of planted saplings died within the first year, and 44% had died after five years. And those averages hide huge differences. Some sites still had more than 80% of their trees alive after five years. Others lost about the same share.

What made the difference? Care. Closer to home, a study of farmers planting trees in Kenya’s eastern drylands found survival ranged from about 32% in Machakos to about 53% in Kitui. Watering alone raised survival by 35%.

Our own government audits tell the same story. When the Auditor-General checked 30,000 indigenous seedlings planted in Samburu’s Kirisia Forest in April 2025, only about 60% had survived. Why? Many died after the water bowser used to irrigate them broke down during a drought. One broken bowser. Thousands of trees.

Now here’s the hopeful part. Chiefs across Kenya have mobilised more than two million people and planted over 114 million trees, reaching a 60% seedling survival rate without external funding. When the chiefs’ programme was launched, they weren’t only asked to plant. They were asked to monitor and report on their trees. Someone followed up. That’s the difference.

How do you do it? (Ten minutes)

You don’t need special training. You need a pen, a phone, and ten minutes.

1. Count. How many trees were planted, and how many are alive?
2. Name them. Note the species. Mango? Avocado? Pawpaw? An indigenous tree?
3. Check the basics. Is someone watering? Is there mulch? Is there a guard against goats and cows? Has the site been weeded?
4. Take a photo with today’s date. Next year, you’ll have something to compare.
5. Share the result. Tell your school, your ward or your county forestry office. And if you can, record it on the JazaMiti app, which the government is encouraging citizens to use to track their trees.

Ten minutes. That’s less time than it took to take the planting photo.

What should we ask leaders?

Kenya has committed to growing 15 billion trees by 2032, and our tree cover target is 30% by the same year. Today, forest cover stands at about 8.8%. Those are big numbers. But a target counted in seedlings planted will never tell us how close we really are.

So let’s ask for three things:

• Publish survival rates by county, not just seedlings planted. We deserve to know how many trees are actually growing.
• Fund maintenance before the next round of planting, not after. Water, fencing and caretakers cost money. Without them, we’re planting the same trees twice.
• Protect the mature trees we already have. A seedling takes years to do what a grown tree is doing today.

Planting is the easy part. Growing is the work.

So this Mazingira Day, before you pick up a new seedling, go back to last year’s. Walk to the school. Find the spot. Count.

To every teacher, pupil and parent who has watered a tree when nobody was watching: thank you. This is your holiday too.